Saturday, December 28, 2013

GBPUSD 30/12/2013

The pair rallied on Friday, just hours before it came crashing down, creating a bearish dark cloud cover signal on the 4-hour chart. On the 1-hour chart, the market has closed just slightly below 18 December’s high ($1.6480), as well as below the Fibonacci Extension level of 0.618.

With the bearish candlestick signal on the 4-hour chart, rally of the DXY, along with the market closing just slightly under $1.6480, it is a good opportunity to short this currency pair. For those who are more conservative, I would suggest waiting for the 10SMA to cross below the 20SMA before shorting it. 

GBPUSD H4 Chart

GBPUSD H1 Chart

US Dollar Index 30/12/2013

The US dollar index has bounced strongly from the low on 10 December just before the markets closed for the weekend, indicating strength in the USD. The bullish USD can be exploited by shorting GBPUSD and AUDUSD for the upcoming week. Kindly refer to their respective charts for a more in-depth analysis.


Wednesday, December 25, 2013

AUDUSD & USDJPY 26/12/2013

Merry Christmas everyone!

Today's post will be on AUDUSD & USDJPY!

AUDUSD

This pair has been rallying for the past week or so, forming a bullish trend line. While the pair has corrected itself on 23 Dec, it is supported by the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level along, and is now cruising along the trendline. With the 20SMA just about to cross the 50SMA on the H4 charts, I would give say that it is a good time to long this currency pair when the market resumes operations.



USDJPY

I believe that this pair has been on the 4th wave of the Elliot Wave, and is resuming its rally on the fifth leg of the wave. I believe that this pair will continue its rally to 105.72 before correcting itself.



Saturday, December 14, 2013

Update to the blog!

Hello everyone. It has been sometime since I have posted an entry in this blog. I apologize for doing so because I haven't been all free to post a new entry. The previous readers of my blog will know that I usually take screenshots from MetaTrader and post the links here to view. After discovering a new website called Trading View, I will be using charts from that website to showcase my trading plans.

That being said, let's move on to the technical analysis!

USDJPY

This pair has been rallying for the past few weeks and it seems like it is not stopping! On Tuesday (10/12/2013). the pair reached 3 December's high and retraced back to the 0.618 level before hitting a daily high of 103.908. The Yen then ended the week back around the 0.236 Fibonacci level of 103.221. Being a strong believer of Fibonacci retracement and extensions, I would say that this pair would continue its rally to the 1.618 Fibonacci level, which is still some distance from last week's closing. The projected take profit price would be around 104.740 (Fibonacci Extension Level 1.618).


Click here to view on Trading View.



Tuesday, August 27, 2013

AUDUSD Forecast

The currency pair started the day dropping till the 0.89455 level which is a significant support level on the hourly chart. That being said, I would recommend a BUY for this currency at these levels; 0.89455, 0.89770, and 0.89900. The first resistance level would be at 0.90150, followed by 0.90548, and 0.90918. If you had followed my previous posts, my ultimate target price for this currency pair is 0.90918. Given that the currency has hit a significant support level on the hourly chart, a BUY would be strongly recommended. On top of that, there is a large trading volume at the support level of 0.89455, thus making it a good time to buy this currency pair.

Saturday, August 24, 2013

August 26 Technical Forecast (AUDUSD, USDJPY)

AUDUSD Forecast
As covered in previous post, this currency pair is currently in the consolidation phase as prices hovers around 0.89421 and 0.90372. Despite so, there is a very strong support at 0.89812, and this has been further confirmed by yesterday's price action, where there is a surge in price at 0.89812, along with a large increase in volume. However, there is a also a significant resistance at 0.90372. That being said, I would expect this currency pair to trend up next week given that Ben Bernanke will not be attending Jackson Hole symposium 2013 today, probably indicating that there will not be any significant news being released over the weekends. 

Based on fundamental analysis, the 20-period SMA has crossed the 50-period SMA, but has much remained flat. Nevertheless, a downtrend reversal is very likely since the market closed at the support level of 0.90125, where there has been several Dojis forming at this area. 



USDJPY Forecast

This is one of my favourite currency pair. There was a sharp drop in the price of this pair yesterday, accompanied with a large volume traded. This is probably due to the psychological resistance level of 99.00 causing the drop. The pair corrected itself from 98.479 to 98.471, with the market closing at 98.677. While the 20SMA has yet to cross the 50SMA, the drop in price along with correction to 98.471 and closing at 98.677 indicates that a downtrend looms ahead of this pair. A short position for this pair would be good when the markets open on Monday as the market corrects and prepare itself for the downtrend. 


Once again, before I end my post, please follow me on twitter @fx_warrior. Thank you!

Friday, August 23, 2013

Before the week ends, I would like to conclude that most of the major pairs are in the consolidation phase and I do not recommend a BUY or SELL. I would recommend that if you have any open positions, please close them as there might be a possible trend reversals for most of the pairs next week. 

Also, do note that there would be a major event next Friday, where the Fed would be having their meeting at Jackson Hole. Enjoy your weekend guys!

PS: Please be sure to follow me on Twitter @fx_warrior, or click on the "Follow" button at the right side!
For this post, I will be discussing about the AUDUSD currency pair.

Recently, this pair has ended its downtrend after the US released its Unemployment claims data. It failed to meet the expectations of analysts as the actual unemployment claims were 336,000, while analysts expected 329,000. It is also more than the unemployment claims data released previously of 323,000. That being said, it sent this currency pair along with other major pairs into consolidation phase as market participants are probably hesitant whether the US economy is improving as expected due to the tapering of the Quantitative Easing. Fundamentals aside, the H1 chart shows that this pair is in the consolidation phase as prices hovers around 0.89905 and 0.90431.

As the price is now nearer to the 0.89905 mark, I would recommend a buy for this currency pair as the 20-SMA has crossed the 50-SMA, signalling a BUY for this pair.

Due to the market's uncertainty of the conditions in US, I would recommend a TAKE PROFIT at 0.90431.


It has been quite some time since I have updated my blog. But since I have finished my exams, I will start posting once again! Hurray! Anyway, please follow me on twitter @fx_warrior.

Sunday, June 9, 2013

My apologies for not updating this blog for quite some time.

Anyways, next week (10/6/2013), I will be focusing on the EURUSD pair as well as XAUUSD.

EURUSD seems to be facing some support after it tried to test it on Friday's closing. I feel that this pair would continue to rally up.

For XAUUSD, a doji has appeared on the H4 chart. However, do note that the daily chart's stochastic is signalling a downtrend. I would long this pair if there is a bullish candlestick forming on the next H4.

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Hello!

Believe it or not, I just lost 12K due to the lack of self-discipline! Made 2 loss trades on EURUSD today.

Anyway, now I am holding 3 positions in EURUSD, GBPJPY, and GBPUSD. These 3 has finally gave me signals to long/short.

For EURUSD, I have shorted the pair as it showed a short signal right after hitting the Bollinger Bands, however, it seems that the 1.29391 support level is hard to break. But based on my indicators, I think it would be good if I were to stand on the short side.


The 1.5280 support level for GBPUSD has also been broken during the day's trading. Therefore, I have decided to short the pair. Stochastic also gave me a good signal to do so, even though it is now roaming at below the 20 level. 



Evening everyone.

Alright, I have opened a short position on GBPJPY @ 155.59 as the price did break the support at around 155.70 just now. Also, stochastic is providing me a good opportunity to short.





Continuing, you might be wondering why did I not open a position on EURUSD as mentioned. Currently, this currency pair is not giving me any good opportunity to trade! Looking at the performance of GBPUSD tonight and the positive correlation between EURUSD and GBPUSD, I am standing on the short side of this currency pair.


Monday, May 13, 2013

Alright, the markets are once open again. I have been keeping track of the EURUSD since this morning. Looking at the H4 chart, you can see that there is some resistance at around 1.29555. I believe that the Euro will rise against the dollar for this week. I would only open a position if the next H4 candlestick forms above 1.29851. The stochastic indicator seems to be giving a good signal to long EURUSD too!



I won't be looking at the GBPUSD pair for now as I feel that the trading opportunity for EURUSD is much better than the former. 

Let's go for the USDCHF shall we? I don't have much experience in trading this pair, but based on my estimates, the Swiss Franc will probably appreciate against the dollar. Yes, in other words, you might want to look out for some shorting opportunities for this currency pair. 

I will have another post tonight or tomorrow morning regarding EURUSD :)

See you!

Sunday, May 12, 2013

Alright, my first forex post. I am currently not holding any positions. Based on my H4 chart, the EURUSD pair has hit a low of 1.2945 during last week's trading. It closed off the week at 1.29851. Based on my predictions, there is a possibility that this pair would be heading up north, given that it is bouncing off the lower Bollinger bands. However, I would say it would only be safe to long this pair only if it goes up the 1.30285 resistance. I would short this pair if tomorrow's opening goes below Friday's low. If you were to look at the daily chart, you can see that this currency pair is actually ranging between the 1.29851 and 1.31654 level. Personally, I stand on the long side of this pair until it hits the upper limit of the range.
Hello everyone, or at least those who are reading this blog. This blog serves as my trading journal, which I hope will be useful for both you and me and help us to be a better forex trader. However, this would also serve as a disclaimer that I am NOT responsible for any losses (or gains) which you make when using information found on this blog. Information here is for educational purposes only. Thank you :)